The statement of DND Secretary Norberto Gonzales that cheating in the 2010 elections has already begun seems to have no other objective but to undermine the elections and the looming victory of certain candidates
Without naming names, Secretary Gonzales makes it appear that he has reliable information about alleged bribery and pay-offs between political parties and Comelec officials. His public disclosure during the Bishops-Ulama Conference is bereft of any credible reference, but is only backed up by his claim that his information came from Comelec officials themselves.
If his story is true, it is the height of irresponsibility to make such a casual statement with about 10 days left before the elections. He should have mobilized the intelligence resources at his disposal and gathered concrete evidence to support the statement and even publicly reveal the identities of those involved. If he is sincere in stopping election cheating, he should have made steps to bring the culprits out in the open and prosecution.
Instead, Sec. Gonzales is playing a guessing game, teasing the public with a controversy but withholding vital information that only tends to tarnish the credibility of the elections and the expected outcome. Coming from someone who proposed months ago a revolutionary government with President Arroyo at the helm instead of conducting the 2010 elections, it is consistent with his attempts to prevent a transition in the government.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
The AFP Should Not be a Party to Midnight Defense Contracts
The Armed Forces of the Philippines should be careful not to become party to midnight deals that are being cooked up by the Defense Department in its rush to close contracts before the Arroyo Administration ends its term in June 30 of this year.
The military should keep in mind that any controversy or flaw in these deals will greatly affect the long-delayed AFP Modernization Program and further set back the military’s strategic and tactical targets in the performance of their duty.
It has been publicly stated by Secretary Norberto Gonzales that it is his desire to rush the AFP Modernization Program by entering into contracts before the end of President Arroyo’s term using the Multi-Year Obligational Authority (MYOA) granted by Congress under the 2010 General Appropriations Act.
This rush is widely believed to be supplier-driven with Secretary Gonzales admitting that he has already received offers from four governments, namely, Canada, Israel, France and South Korea. For example, military sources reveal that Sec. Gonzales is favorably considering the acquisition of Cobra attack helicopters from Israel, even though they are just refurbished and are single-engine aircraft even though the Philippine Air Force prefer twin-engined helicopters.
But as the end-users, the AFP has a vital role to play in ensuring that the Modernization Program will not fall victim to shady midnight deals . The military should not subscribe to the rush being espoused by Sec. Gonzales who was quoted as saying, “Yes, we are rushing what we can still do under the AFP modernization program in our very limited time left. Aren’t we Filipinos known to be good in the last two minutes?”
The MYOA granted by Congress will expire on December 31, 2010, or six months beyond the term of President Arroyo. The next administration, which will serve from June 30, 2010 to June 30, 2016, is in the best position to utilize the MYOA and proceed with the AFP Modernization Program without the need to rush into midnight deals.
The AFP itself should not give in to the desire of the Defense Secretary who will be out of office in several weeks to rush the military contracts . It would be to the best interest of the Armed Forces to proceed with the Modernization Program under a new administration. The Multi-Year Obligational Authority is a golden opportunity for the AFP to achieve honest to goodness modernization. As the principal sponsor of the DND Budget for 2010 and one of the sponsors of the MYOA, I do not want to see this opportunity squandered by the rush to deliver the goods before the administration steps down just so that it could be written down as one of its major accomplishments.
Aside from waiting for the new administration, it will also do well to wait for the 15th Congress to assume office, since the AFP Modernization Law requires the DND/AFP to submit the contracts to Congress for scrutiny before the appropriation of funds. The current 14th Congress will not have time to scrutinize and appropriate funds for any midnight deal that the SND will enter into at this time.
There simply is no need and urgency to rush these military contracts before the expiration of President Arroyo’s term. It will only serve the desire of this administration to have something to brag about as it steps down, although it would be to the detriment of the AFP’s and the country’s interests. This is one instance when it will be good for the military to delay action on the wish of the outgoing administration.
The military should keep in mind that any controversy or flaw in these deals will greatly affect the long-delayed AFP Modernization Program and further set back the military’s strategic and tactical targets in the performance of their duty.
It has been publicly stated by Secretary Norberto Gonzales that it is his desire to rush the AFP Modernization Program by entering into contracts before the end of President Arroyo’s term using the Multi-Year Obligational Authority (MYOA) granted by Congress under the 2010 General Appropriations Act.
This rush is widely believed to be supplier-driven with Secretary Gonzales admitting that he has already received offers from four governments, namely, Canada, Israel, France and South Korea. For example, military sources reveal that Sec. Gonzales is favorably considering the acquisition of Cobra attack helicopters from Israel, even though they are just refurbished and are single-engine aircraft even though the Philippine Air Force prefer twin-engined helicopters.
But as the end-users, the AFP has a vital role to play in ensuring that the Modernization Program will not fall victim to shady midnight deals . The military should not subscribe to the rush being espoused by Sec. Gonzales who was quoted as saying, “Yes, we are rushing what we can still do under the AFP modernization program in our very limited time left. Aren’t we Filipinos known to be good in the last two minutes?”
The MYOA granted by Congress will expire on December 31, 2010, or six months beyond the term of President Arroyo. The next administration, which will serve from June 30, 2010 to June 30, 2016, is in the best position to utilize the MYOA and proceed with the AFP Modernization Program without the need to rush into midnight deals.
The AFP itself should not give in to the desire of the Defense Secretary who will be out of office in several weeks to rush the military contracts . It would be to the best interest of the Armed Forces to proceed with the Modernization Program under a new administration. The Multi-Year Obligational Authority is a golden opportunity for the AFP to achieve honest to goodness modernization. As the principal sponsor of the DND Budget for 2010 and one of the sponsors of the MYOA, I do not want to see this opportunity squandered by the rush to deliver the goods before the administration steps down just so that it could be written down as one of its major accomplishments.
Aside from waiting for the new administration, it will also do well to wait for the 15th Congress to assume office, since the AFP Modernization Law requires the DND/AFP to submit the contracts to Congress for scrutiny before the appropriation of funds. The current 14th Congress will not have time to scrutinize and appropriate funds for any midnight deal that the SND will enter into at this time.
There simply is no need and urgency to rush these military contracts before the expiration of President Arroyo’s term. It will only serve the desire of this administration to have something to brag about as it steps down, although it would be to the detriment of the AFP’s and the country’s interests. This is one instance when it will be good for the military to delay action on the wish of the outgoing administration.
Friday, April 16, 2010
No Need for Martial Law in Basilan
A call by Basilan Catholic Bishop Martin Jumoad for the imposition of martial law in the aftermath of the deadly bombing which killed 15 persons should not even be considered since its declaration is not necessary in going after the culprits.
In the case of the Maguindanao massacre where members of the Ampatuan clan were apprehended, the declaration was made in order to facilitate the arrest of the suspects even without warrants. But eventually, it proved to be a faulty decision since the court dismissed the rebellion case for lack of evidence. It turned out that there was no basis for the declaration since there was no rebellion as defined under the law.
With regard to the Basilan bombing, the suspected culprit is the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), a known terrorist organization which has been involved in terror activities like kidnappings and bombings. The Human Security Act, which provides for wiretap surveillance and warrantless arrests, makes it unnecessary to impose military rule because the declaration of martial law is only justified if rebellion or invasion is present.
In the case of the Basilan bombing, there is no invasion and the acts of the ASG should not be considered rebellion. It would negate their tag as a terrorist organization and considering them as rebels would only make them qualify for amnesty some time in the future. We should not fall into the temptation of copying the government’s response to the Maguindanao massacre declaring martial law just so that the suspects will be apprehended. As we have seen with the Ampatuans, their rebellion case was dismissed because it was found by the court that there was no rebellion.
Coming so close to the elections, declaration of martial for convenience will only cause unwanted anxiety among the people who will surely suspect that martial law will be used for the administration’s political advantage. It is disturbing to hear Secretary Norberto Gonzales say that they are studying the martial law option. Malacañang’s statement that it is not considering martial law is also not reassuring, since days before the declaration of martial law in Maguinanao was also preceded by statements from high government officials that military rule was not necessary.
Rather than declare martial law, the Human Security Act, also known as the Anti-Terror Law, should be used against the perpetrators of the bombing. It is a law that is specifically meant to address acts of terrorism by terrorists and terrorist organizations and it is a law that is already in force.
The Human Security Act will also be applicable to the situation if the government’s suspicion is true that the ASG is being used as a private armed group by politicians. Those who employ the ASG may be considered as an accomplice or accessory to terrorism and be charged accordingly using the HSA. The law even has provisions for probing the bank accounts of suspects so if there are politicians suspected to be involved in the actions of the ASG, their finances can even be looked into.
While I share the desire of the people of Basilan to bring the bombers to justice, I do not agree to the declaration of martial law as the solution. It will only further tarnish the image of the country in the international community; it is the inappropriate measure and will result in the failure to convict the suspects; it is untimely in the face of the coming elections and it is only a tool of last resort.
In the case of the Maguindanao massacre where members of the Ampatuan clan were apprehended, the declaration was made in order to facilitate the arrest of the suspects even without warrants. But eventually, it proved to be a faulty decision since the court dismissed the rebellion case for lack of evidence. It turned out that there was no basis for the declaration since there was no rebellion as defined under the law.
With regard to the Basilan bombing, the suspected culprit is the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), a known terrorist organization which has been involved in terror activities like kidnappings and bombings. The Human Security Act, which provides for wiretap surveillance and warrantless arrests, makes it unnecessary to impose military rule because the declaration of martial law is only justified if rebellion or invasion is present.
In the case of the Basilan bombing, there is no invasion and the acts of the ASG should not be considered rebellion. It would negate their tag as a terrorist organization and considering them as rebels would only make them qualify for amnesty some time in the future. We should not fall into the temptation of copying the government’s response to the Maguindanao massacre declaring martial law just so that the suspects will be apprehended. As we have seen with the Ampatuans, their rebellion case was dismissed because it was found by the court that there was no rebellion.
Coming so close to the elections, declaration of martial for convenience will only cause unwanted anxiety among the people who will surely suspect that martial law will be used for the administration’s political advantage. It is disturbing to hear Secretary Norberto Gonzales say that they are studying the martial law option. Malacañang’s statement that it is not considering martial law is also not reassuring, since days before the declaration of martial law in Maguinanao was also preceded by statements from high government officials that military rule was not necessary.
Rather than declare martial law, the Human Security Act, also known as the Anti-Terror Law, should be used against the perpetrators of the bombing. It is a law that is specifically meant to address acts of terrorism by terrorists and terrorist organizations and it is a law that is already in force.
The Human Security Act will also be applicable to the situation if the government’s suspicion is true that the ASG is being used as a private armed group by politicians. Those who employ the ASG may be considered as an accomplice or accessory to terrorism and be charged accordingly using the HSA. The law even has provisions for probing the bank accounts of suspects so if there are politicians suspected to be involved in the actions of the ASG, their finances can even be looked into.
While I share the desire of the people of Basilan to bring the bombers to justice, I do not agree to the declaration of martial law as the solution. It will only further tarnish the image of the country in the international community; it is the inappropriate measure and will result in the failure to convict the suspects; it is untimely in the face of the coming elections and it is only a tool of last resort.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Justice in Agrarian Reform Includes Going After Illegal Conversions of Agrarian Land to Residential Subdivisions
It is worrisome to hear stalwarts of a rival political party express their eagerness to see a rushed distribution of Hacienda Luisita, particularly because of the incidence of illegal conversions of CARP farmlands into residential subdivisions such as the one discovered in Iloilo where large tracts of irrigated farm lands were alleged to be anomalously converted into a residential subdivision owned by a presidential candidate.
Hacienda Luisita is a prime piece of real estate, very much attractive to developers of commercial and residential projects. It is not surprising for developers to have a lustful eye on the property, considering the value that it has and the potential for development.
While members of some political parties expressed their concern about the Hacienda Luisita not being subject to land reform under an Aquino administration, there is also a serious basis to be concerned about illegal land conversions under and administration led by a real estate developer who has been linked to activities which have undermined the agrarian reform program.
The next administration should not only promote genuine agrarian reform, it should also be committed to protect the gains of agrarian reform and go against greedy land developers and run after those who have bamboozled farmer beneficiaries into selling their rights and illegally convert agrarian land to commercial and residential projects.
Contrary to what others seem to believe, the pursuit of justice in agrarian reform does not end with the distribution of Hacienda Luisita. It includes the prosecution of those who have been engaged in illegal conversion and the prevention of such schemes which undermine the agrarian reform program.
Hacienda Luisita is a prime piece of real estate, very much attractive to developers of commercial and residential projects. It is not surprising for developers to have a lustful eye on the property, considering the value that it has and the potential for development.
While members of some political parties expressed their concern about the Hacienda Luisita not being subject to land reform under an Aquino administration, there is also a serious basis to be concerned about illegal land conversions under and administration led by a real estate developer who has been linked to activities which have undermined the agrarian reform program.
The next administration should not only promote genuine agrarian reform, it should also be committed to protect the gains of agrarian reform and go against greedy land developers and run after those who have bamboozled farmer beneficiaries into selling their rights and illegally convert agrarian land to commercial and residential projects.
Contrary to what others seem to believe, the pursuit of justice in agrarian reform does not end with the distribution of Hacienda Luisita. It includes the prosecution of those who have been engaged in illegal conversion and the prevention of such schemes which undermine the agrarian reform program.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Noynoy Aquino Could Be A Hostaged President
The campaign for national candidates is almost halfway through as we near the start of the campaign for local positions. At this time, there is an indication of how the results will turn out, although the remaining half of the campaign period may still see changes in the ratings of candidates. Therefore, it is important that during this time, an assessment of the candidates’ ratings and political parties’ campaign strategies and direction is in order.
Focusing on my own party, the Liberal Party, both our presidential and vice presidential candidates have consistently topped the surveys ever since they first announced their intentions to run for the posts they’re now candidates for.
In the Pulse Asia survey done from Feb.21 to 25, Senator Mar Roxas’ lead over his rival is comfortable, and it seems that the 16 percentage point spread is too big for the other candidates to have a real chance of catching up with in the remaining days of the campaign period. Senator Noynoy Aquino led Villar with a 36% versus 29% margin. After months of spending hundreds of millions (possibly even more than a billion pesos) in the past several months trying to catch up, Senator Villar is still second place with only a month and a half remaining. It seems that only a major blunder will make people change their minds about who to support for president in the coming elections.
With the prospect of an Aquino-Roxas victory more real than imagined, it becomes necessary now to do a post-election scenario analysis of what awaits an Aquino-Roxas administration. Of course, the significant scenario is one that will pertain to the Legislative branch of government, because the plans and programs of the president can only push through if there is support from the Congress.
Let me emphasize that this is a worst-case scenario analysis. Of course, it may turn out differently, but one never really makes plans using the best case scenario. In order to be effective and relevant, you always consider the prospect of the worst situation you can face.
With this in mind, I would venture to say that the House of Representatives seems to most likely become an Arroyo stronghold. With Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo herself running for a seat in the House, cabinet members seeking both congressional and party list seats, many more incumbent pro-administration congressmen seeking reelection, it stands to reason that the future Rep. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has a very good chance of getting the Speakership of the House of Representatives at the maximum, or come up with a major bloc in the lower chamber, big enough to be a significant threat to launch an impeachment which requires only a third of the House membership.
That significant bloc will also have a very strong influence in how legislation will pass or not pass in the lower chamber. It will be an excruciating and tedious effort to get bills through the legislative mill in the House.
An Aquino-Roxas electoral victory will only mean that Senators Villar and Legarda will go back as members of the Philippine Senate. It is therefore necessary to play out the scenario in the upper chamber, since under the bicameral system of government, legislation is passed by both chambers before it become law.
In the senate, there are twelve senators who are now in their mid-term, and they are either up for re-election or at the end of their term in 2013 (with the exception of Sen. Noynoy Aquino, who we are assuming to have been elected president in this scenario):
1. Sen. Miguel Zubiri
2. Sen. Edegardo Angara
3. Sen. Joker Arroyo
4. Sen. Alan Cayetano
5. Sen. Francsis Escudero
6. Sen. Gregorio Honasan
7. Sen. Panfilo Lacson
8. Sen. Francis Pangilinan
9. Sen. Antonio Trillanes
10. Sen. Manny Villar
11. Sen. Loren Legarda
Using the Pulse Asia survey referred to earlier, the possible winners in the 2010 elections are:
1. Sen. Bong Revilla
2. Sen. Jinggoy Estrada
3. Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago
4. Sen. Pia Cayetano
5. Former Sen. Franklin Drilon
6. Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile
7. Former Sen. Tito Sotto
8. Former Sen. Ralph Recto
9. Former Sen. Serge Osmeña
10. Cong. Bong Bong Marcos
11. Sen. Lito Lapid
12. Cong. TG Guingona
13. Jose De Venecia III
14. Cong. Ruffy Biazon
Statistically, Cong. Marcos is ranked 9-12, Sen.. Lapid is 9-14, Cong. Guingona is 10-14, Mr. De Venecia is 11-15 and Cong. Biazon is 11-16.
Based on the senators serving their mid-term and the possible result of the 2010 senatorial elections, the composition and alignment of members of the Senate of the 15th Congress may be analyzed. The outcome in the Senate will also have a very significant effect on the success of the Aquino presidency.
From the foregoing information, a possible composition of the Senate may be drawn:
1. Sen. Miguel Zubiri
2. Sen. Edegardo Angara
3. Sen. Joker Arroyo
4. Sen. Alan Cayetano
5. Sen. Francsis Escudero
6. Sen. Gregorio Honasan
7. Sen. Panfilo Lacson
8. Sen. Francis Pangilinan
9. Sen. Antonio Trillanes
10. Sen. Manny Villar
11. Sen. Loren Legarda
12. Sen. Bong Revilla
13. Sen. Jinggoy Estrada
14. Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago
15. Sen. Pia Cayetano
16. Former Sen. Franklin Drilon
17. Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile
18. Former Sen. Tito Sotto
19. Former Sen. Ralph Recto
20. Former Sen. Serge Osmeña
21. Cong. Bong Bong Marcos
22. Sen. Lito Lapid
23. Cong. TG Guingona
24. (vacancy left by Sen. Aquino, assuming he’s elected president)
Owing to the statistical tie in the survey, Mr. De Venecia and Cong. Biazon may land in the 12th spot.
From the above list, the alignment of senators may also be drawn, based on who will support an Aquino presidency:
Pro-Aquino:
1. Sen. Francis Escudero
2. Sen. Panfilo Lacson
3. Sen. Francis Pangilinan
4. Sen. Franklin Drilon
5. Sen. Ralph Recto
6. Sen. Serge Osmeña
7. Sen. TG Guingona / Sen. Ruffy Biazon (if either of them gets in )
Pro-Villar:
1. Sen. Manny Villar
2. Sen. Loren Legarda
3. Sen. Joker Arroyo
4. Sen. Alan Cayetano
5. Sen. Pia Cayetano
6. Sen. Gregorio Honasan
7. Sen. Antonio Trillanes
8. Sen. Ramon Revilla
9. Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago
10. Sen. Bong-Bong Marcos
Unknown:
1. Sen. Miguel Zubiri
2. Sen. Edgardo Angara
3. Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile
4. Sen. Tito Sotto
5. Sen. Lito Lapid
6. Sen. Jinggoy Estrada
7. Sen. Joey De Venecia (if he gets in )
These projected alignments are based on party affiliation, alliances during the campaign, alignments during issue-discussions and other observed nuances.
Based on this projected alignments, it would appear that Sen. Villar will have a bigger bloc ready to support a bid for the Senate presidency. With a bloc composed of 10 senators who are members of his party, vocal supporters or known sympathizers, Sen. Villar will only need three more to gain the majority in the Senate and propel him to the Senate presidency.
Among the seven unknowns, if Joey De Venecia gets in (and both Cong, Guingona and Cong. Biazon are out), he will not make a difference if he joins the pro-Aquino side since he would have just dislodged either Cong. Guingona or Cong. Biazon who are sure to be with Aquino, but there is a possibility that he will join the Villar side due to the prospect of being with the majority in the Senate and get a chance at choice committees. With De Venecia, Aquino stands to either just maintain 7 allies or be reduced to 6, unlike Guingona and Biazon who are sure to stay with Aquino.
There is basis to believe that Sen. Enrile and Sen. Estrada will side with the pro-Aquino bloc, especially since both have been vocal against Sen. Villar during the campaign. That would give the pro-Aquino bloc 9 senators at best.
The crucial question is where will the Arroyo allies in the Senate, Sen. Zubiri and Sen, Lapid, go? It is highly unlikely that Arroyo will ask them to side with the pro-Aquino camp. The only remaining option is to go the other way and ensure that they get good posts in the new Senate while at the same time not digress from the interest of their party leader.
Such a move would then give Sen. Villar a solid 12 votes, with Sen. Angara and Sen. Sotto up for the grabs. As to where they will go, I will not venture to proceed with an analysis and prediction.
In conclusion, there is a possibility that the relationship between the 15th Congress and an Aquino presidency might be a hostile relationship at worst or a difficult one at best. Noynoy Aquino could be held hostage by an Arroyo House Speakership and a Villar Senate Presidency.
Experience has taught us that the dynamics in the legislature sometimes transcend those of national and even party interests. That when the individual perks and coveted positions are at stake, the decision on who to side with are made with the individual interests in primary consideration.
It is therefore imperative that the supporters of Noynoy Aquino, who have the desire to see him succeed as president, should give equal and committed support to his senatorial candidates in order to ensure that he has enough allies in the legislature to support his plans and programs. The senatorial elections must not only be an afterthought, but it should be considered a crucial part of the strategic plan in gaining leadership of this country and installing a government that will be able to work without the difficulties of an uncooperative legislature.
Focusing on my own party, the Liberal Party, both our presidential and vice presidential candidates have consistently topped the surveys ever since they first announced their intentions to run for the posts they’re now candidates for.
In the Pulse Asia survey done from Feb.21 to 25, Senator Mar Roxas’ lead over his rival is comfortable, and it seems that the 16 percentage point spread is too big for the other candidates to have a real chance of catching up with in the remaining days of the campaign period. Senator Noynoy Aquino led Villar with a 36% versus 29% margin. After months of spending hundreds of millions (possibly even more than a billion pesos) in the past several months trying to catch up, Senator Villar is still second place with only a month and a half remaining. It seems that only a major blunder will make people change their minds about who to support for president in the coming elections.
With the prospect of an Aquino-Roxas victory more real than imagined, it becomes necessary now to do a post-election scenario analysis of what awaits an Aquino-Roxas administration. Of course, the significant scenario is one that will pertain to the Legislative branch of government, because the plans and programs of the president can only push through if there is support from the Congress.
Let me emphasize that this is a worst-case scenario analysis. Of course, it may turn out differently, but one never really makes plans using the best case scenario. In order to be effective and relevant, you always consider the prospect of the worst situation you can face.
With this in mind, I would venture to say that the House of Representatives seems to most likely become an Arroyo stronghold. With Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo herself running for a seat in the House, cabinet members seeking both congressional and party list seats, many more incumbent pro-administration congressmen seeking reelection, it stands to reason that the future Rep. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has a very good chance of getting the Speakership of the House of Representatives at the maximum, or come up with a major bloc in the lower chamber, big enough to be a significant threat to launch an impeachment which requires only a third of the House membership.
That significant bloc will also have a very strong influence in how legislation will pass or not pass in the lower chamber. It will be an excruciating and tedious effort to get bills through the legislative mill in the House.
An Aquino-Roxas electoral victory will only mean that Senators Villar and Legarda will go back as members of the Philippine Senate. It is therefore necessary to play out the scenario in the upper chamber, since under the bicameral system of government, legislation is passed by both chambers before it become law.
In the senate, there are twelve senators who are now in their mid-term, and they are either up for re-election or at the end of their term in 2013 (with the exception of Sen. Noynoy Aquino, who we are assuming to have been elected president in this scenario):
1. Sen. Miguel Zubiri
2. Sen. Edegardo Angara
3. Sen. Joker Arroyo
4. Sen. Alan Cayetano
5. Sen. Francsis Escudero
6. Sen. Gregorio Honasan
7. Sen. Panfilo Lacson
8. Sen. Francis Pangilinan
9. Sen. Antonio Trillanes
10. Sen. Manny Villar
11. Sen. Loren Legarda
Using the Pulse Asia survey referred to earlier, the possible winners in the 2010 elections are:
1. Sen. Bong Revilla
2. Sen. Jinggoy Estrada
3. Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago
4. Sen. Pia Cayetano
5. Former Sen. Franklin Drilon
6. Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile
7. Former Sen. Tito Sotto
8. Former Sen. Ralph Recto
9. Former Sen. Serge Osmeña
10. Cong. Bong Bong Marcos
11. Sen. Lito Lapid
12. Cong. TG Guingona
13. Jose De Venecia III
14. Cong. Ruffy Biazon
Statistically, Cong. Marcos is ranked 9-12, Sen.. Lapid is 9-14, Cong. Guingona is 10-14, Mr. De Venecia is 11-15 and Cong. Biazon is 11-16.
Based on the senators serving their mid-term and the possible result of the 2010 senatorial elections, the composition and alignment of members of the Senate of the 15th Congress may be analyzed. The outcome in the Senate will also have a very significant effect on the success of the Aquino presidency.
From the foregoing information, a possible composition of the Senate may be drawn:
1. Sen. Miguel Zubiri
2. Sen. Edegardo Angara
3. Sen. Joker Arroyo
4. Sen. Alan Cayetano
5. Sen. Francsis Escudero
6. Sen. Gregorio Honasan
7. Sen. Panfilo Lacson
8. Sen. Francis Pangilinan
9. Sen. Antonio Trillanes
10. Sen. Manny Villar
11. Sen. Loren Legarda
12. Sen. Bong Revilla
13. Sen. Jinggoy Estrada
14. Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago
15. Sen. Pia Cayetano
16. Former Sen. Franklin Drilon
17. Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile
18. Former Sen. Tito Sotto
19. Former Sen. Ralph Recto
20. Former Sen. Serge Osmeña
21. Cong. Bong Bong Marcos
22. Sen. Lito Lapid
23. Cong. TG Guingona
24. (vacancy left by Sen. Aquino, assuming he’s elected president)
Owing to the statistical tie in the survey, Mr. De Venecia and Cong. Biazon may land in the 12th spot.
From the above list, the alignment of senators may also be drawn, based on who will support an Aquino presidency:
Pro-Aquino:
1. Sen. Francis Escudero
2. Sen. Panfilo Lacson
3. Sen. Francis Pangilinan
4. Sen. Franklin Drilon
5. Sen. Ralph Recto
6. Sen. Serge Osmeña
7. Sen. TG Guingona / Sen. Ruffy Biazon (if either of them gets in )
Pro-Villar:
1. Sen. Manny Villar
2. Sen. Loren Legarda
3. Sen. Joker Arroyo
4. Sen. Alan Cayetano
5. Sen. Pia Cayetano
6. Sen. Gregorio Honasan
7. Sen. Antonio Trillanes
8. Sen. Ramon Revilla
9. Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago
10. Sen. Bong-Bong Marcos
Unknown:
1. Sen. Miguel Zubiri
2. Sen. Edgardo Angara
3. Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile
4. Sen. Tito Sotto
5. Sen. Lito Lapid
6. Sen. Jinggoy Estrada
7. Sen. Joey De Venecia (if he gets in )
These projected alignments are based on party affiliation, alliances during the campaign, alignments during issue-discussions and other observed nuances.
Based on this projected alignments, it would appear that Sen. Villar will have a bigger bloc ready to support a bid for the Senate presidency. With a bloc composed of 10 senators who are members of his party, vocal supporters or known sympathizers, Sen. Villar will only need three more to gain the majority in the Senate and propel him to the Senate presidency.
Among the seven unknowns, if Joey De Venecia gets in (and both Cong, Guingona and Cong. Biazon are out), he will not make a difference if he joins the pro-Aquino side since he would have just dislodged either Cong. Guingona or Cong. Biazon who are sure to be with Aquino, but there is a possibility that he will join the Villar side due to the prospect of being with the majority in the Senate and get a chance at choice committees. With De Venecia, Aquino stands to either just maintain 7 allies or be reduced to 6, unlike Guingona and Biazon who are sure to stay with Aquino.
There is basis to believe that Sen. Enrile and Sen. Estrada will side with the pro-Aquino bloc, especially since both have been vocal against Sen. Villar during the campaign. That would give the pro-Aquino bloc 9 senators at best.
The crucial question is where will the Arroyo allies in the Senate, Sen. Zubiri and Sen, Lapid, go? It is highly unlikely that Arroyo will ask them to side with the pro-Aquino camp. The only remaining option is to go the other way and ensure that they get good posts in the new Senate while at the same time not digress from the interest of their party leader.
Such a move would then give Sen. Villar a solid 12 votes, with Sen. Angara and Sen. Sotto up for the grabs. As to where they will go, I will not venture to proceed with an analysis and prediction.
In conclusion, there is a possibility that the relationship between the 15th Congress and an Aquino presidency might be a hostile relationship at worst or a difficult one at best. Noynoy Aquino could be held hostage by an Arroyo House Speakership and a Villar Senate Presidency.
Experience has taught us that the dynamics in the legislature sometimes transcend those of national and even party interests. That when the individual perks and coveted positions are at stake, the decision on who to side with are made with the individual interests in primary consideration.
It is therefore imperative that the supporters of Noynoy Aquino, who have the desire to see him succeed as president, should give equal and committed support to his senatorial candidates in order to ensure that he has enough allies in the legislature to support his plans and programs. The senatorial elections must not only be an afterthought, but it should be considered a crucial part of the strategic plan in gaining leadership of this country and installing a government that will be able to work without the difficulties of an uncooperative legislature.
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